Trailing Republican Josh Hawley with just more than a week to go before the midterm elections, Senator Claire McCaskill has pulled out all the stops in an effort to woo voters in her reddening state back to her side. But some of McCaskill’s overtures to the center, like a radio ad assuring voters she’s “not one of those crazy Democrats,” have run the risk of angering McCaskill’s base in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis—and pro-Hawley groups are jumping at the chance to highlight those tensions.
Take this new digital ad from super-PAC Missouri Rising Action, which is targeting St. Louis-area Democrats in the days leading up to the election.
“What does Senator Claire McCaskill say when she’s not in St. Louis?” the ad asks, before playing audio from the McCaskill radio hit. “‘Crazy Democrats?’ Can Democrats really trust Claire McCaskill?”
The argument echoes statements made last week by some anti-McCaskill state Democrats, such as state senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal, who told THE WEEKLY STANDARD that “All Claire wants is to win by any means necessary, and if that means stomping on the people who are her base, she’ll do it.” But Missouri Rising Action isn’t a group of iconoclastic progressives—it's the super PAC of Missouri Rising, the Hawley-backing Missouri arm of GOP opposition-research outfit America Rising.
“Claire McCaskill is the queen of double speak this election year, with one message for rural Missourians and another for St. Louis and the Washington, D.C., liberals who have bankrolled her campaign,” Executive Director Brian Rogers said in a statement. “Democrats in St. Louis won’t appreciate hearing Claire call them ‘crazy,’ and that’s why we are going to make sure they know what she says behind their backs. This latest misstep demonstrates that Missouri Democrats, Republicans, and independents just can’t trust Claire McCaskill.”
McCaskill has continued her slow polling spiral in recent weeks, with the latest poll from state newsletter Missouri Scout, released this weekend, showing her trailing Hawley by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. RealClearPolitics’s average of recent polls gives Hawley a two-point edge, trending upward. THE WEEKLY STANDARD’s SwingSeat election model forecasts a 57 percent chance of a Hawley victory.