Janet Yellen has given her speech and her words, as parsed by CNN/Money, indicate that, "a rate hike this year is still on the table."
It seems that after a week of doing whatever it is the Federal Reserve does when it gets together at Jackson Hole at summer's end, she is convinced that, "… the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."
On the other hand (and with economists, there is always another hand) "Yellen was vague on timing."
The Fed's committee next meets in late September. It also has a meeting in early November, however, it's unlikely the Fed would raise rates right before the U.S. elections. Plus, such ambiguity from Yellen may indicate that the Fed will wait until its meeting in December.
Meanwhile, the actual economy was delivering a far less ambiguous report. As Business Insider reports:
On Friday, the Commerce Department released its second estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter. It showed that the economy grew 1.1%, revised lower from the 1.2% print earlier reported …
So, if you average that with first quarter GDP growth of .8 percent, you get an economy that is growing at less than 1 percent annually. You don't have to be in Jackson Hole, enjoying the weather and fly fishing for cutthroats on the Snake, to know that isn't exactly "robust."
So, it seems that the Fed feels it isn't entirely confident about the economy … and visa versa.
That concludes our reporting from Jackson Hole. Now back to kayaking and backpacking.