As George Costanza once said, it's not a lie if you believe it. He might have said the same of political spin. It's not clear whether Michael Cohen, an executive vice president with the Trump Organization and a surrogate for the Donald Trump campaign, believes his latest spin on the increasingly poor outlook for the Republican nominee.
On Wednesday, Cohen appeared on CNN to address the day's biggest political news: the shakeup within the Trump campaign that has resulted in a demotion of campaign veteran Paul Manafort, the elevation of pollster Kellyanne Conway, and the hiring of Breitbart News chairman Stephen Bannon as campaign CEO. Host Brianna Keilar began her interview by mentioning this shakeup, prompting Cohen to interrupt her to dispute the use of the term.
"First of all, I've got to stop you for one second, because there's no shakeup," Cohen said. "The campaign is on its way to victory, and yet you still use these ridiculous words in order to incite something."
After lasting through Cohen's filibuster about how a similar "expansion" of the Hillary Clinton campaign would not be receiving the same type of coverage, Keilar pointed out that Trump was, well, losing.
"You say it's not a shakeup, but you guys are down," Keilar began. Cohen interrupted her again.
"Says who?" he said. "Says who?"
"Polls," Keilar deadpanned. "Most of them. All of them."
What followed was an awkward five-second silence before Cohen repeated his question: "Says who?"
"Polls," Keilar repeated. "I just told you. I answered your question."
"Okay, which polls?" Cohen said.
"All of them," Keilar said.
After that, Cohen gave up disputing the charge that Trump is behind. But the odd TV moment raises a question: Does the Trump campaign realize it's losing? According to Real Clear Politics's Electoral College projection based on averages of the polls (all of them), Clinton already has secured 272 electoral votes—more than the required 270 to win a majority—among states that are solidly or lean toward her. Trump has just 154 such votes. Even if all else stayed the same and he were able to win every single toss-up state, he would still fall short with just 266 electoral votes. As Jay Cost argues, looking deeper into the polls, Trump is likely at this point to be headed for a landslide defeat.
Trump ought to understand this. The recent New York Times story on disarray within the Trump campaign depicts a "sullen" candidate who knows things aren't going right. With fewer than three months to go, the only logical explanation for a campaign shakeup (or, pace Michael Cohen, expansion) is an acknowledgment that something needs to change.
And yet, the decision to bring in Bannon, who transformed Breitbart into a sycophantic Pravda for Trump, suggests one of two things. It's possible Trump knows he's likely to lose and wants simply to finish the final 80-plus days on his own terms—free of the fruitless demands from supporters inside and out who insist he "pivot" and "get serious." The other option is that he is so hermetically sealed off from the truth that he truly believes the unfiltered Trump, the candidate Bannon's Breitbart has cheered on for years, will help build on his already successful and winning campaign. He has the largest crowds and provides the best ratings for cable news, after all.
Cohen's obstinate challenge to the plain fact that scientific polls show Trump is losing indicates this head-in-the-sand mentality has permeated the culture in Trump World. Remember, it's not spin if you believe it.