A lot of the political analysis you hear from partisans is predictable. But sometimes they surprise.
That was the case when Karl Rove spoke at a Politico breakfast event in Tampa this morning. Two examples:
(1) When asked what state, now that Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be in play, would emerge next on the target list, he cited Oregon. He noted correctly that the state House is ied 30-30, Republicans almost captured the governorship in 2010 and tha there's a left wing constituency disappointed in Obama. He surely remembers that in 2000 Ralph Nader won 5.04% in Oregon and tha Al Gore carried it by only 46.92% to 46.52%.
(2) He said he expects Latino turnout to "flatline" this year. Like many others, he noted that in the long run Latino turnout will rise, because our under 18 population is more than one-sixth Latino. But Karl seems to have picked up on two things I've mentioned in columns and blogposts: about one-third of mortgage foreclosures in 2007-10 involved Latinos, and since 2007 there has been net reverse Mexican migration.
I think Karl is right on both counts. And if Oregon is in play, Washington might be too, though it's a farther stretch. In 2000 Nader won 4% there and Gore carried it 50%-45%. As for Latino turnout, exit polls showed it as 9% of total in 2008 and 8% in 2010. I suspect it will be one of these two figures in 2010.