New omicron variants are bypassing natural immunity from prior COVID-19 infections and could be enough to spark a new wave, according to a study out of South Africa.

Scientists examining omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages saw increased infection rates in people who had omicron but weren’t vaccinated, compared to their vaccinated counterparts. Scientists took blood samples from 39 people, 15 of whom were vaccinated.

"The vaccinated group showed about a 5-fold higher neutralisation capacity ... and should be better protected," the scientists wrote in a preprint over the weekend.

Preprints of scientific papers have not been peer reviewed.

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Late last week, officials said South Africa might be entering a new COVID-19 wave, and they are pointing to omicron’s subvariants as the likely cause. The new study could throw cold water on countries’ plans to let natural immunity help fill the gap left by people who have refused to get vaccinated.

"Based on neutralisation escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave," the study said.

Scientists have been in agreement that vaccinations are the most effective way to prevent illness and death from COVID-19, though a pairing of natural immunity and vaccination has proven to offer impressive benefits.

Fears about fresh waves of death from omicron were quelled as scientists began to say that the variant was more pervasive but less deadly than delta.

Denmark announced it is poised to end its vaccination regime in two weeks as a result of omicron infections offering widespread natural immunity.

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Iceland leaned into the idea earlier this year that allowing people to get infected was the key to pulling itself out of the pandemic. Earlier this year, the country’s health minister said that everyone should get infected with the virus.

“Widespread societal resistance to coronavirus is the main route out of the epidemic,” the ministry said in a statement to Reuters. “To achieve this, as many people as possible need to be infected with the virus as the vaccines are not enough, even though they provide good protection against serious illness.”