President Trump's high-profile trade fights with China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries won't help him in the midterm elections, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka predicted Tuesday.
Trumka, the head of the nation's leading labor federation, also downplayed the political salience of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, saying that they have not been a "defining issue" either.
"We're not in a position right now to say whether what he has done on the [North American Free Trade Agreement] is good enough or not good enough," Trumka told the Washington Examiner, referencing the deal's possible effects on voters. "It is still too early to pass final judgment on the agreement itself."
Trump's trade agenda has been an awkward subject for Trumka and other critics of past trade deals, who are allied with Democrats on most issues but have seen Trump pursue several policy changes that they've long called for.
Trumka acknowledged that Trump's NAFTA renegotiation, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, had several "improvements" over NAFTA, citing labor protections, new rules on foreign investment, and higher requirements for what constitutes "made in America" for autos. He also said, though, that it had "significant unknowns," including whether or how strongly it could be enforced.
"The [administration's] willingness to do something is a good thing, but the product is as yet unseen ... so we cannot pass judgment on it," Trumka said. "So it is probably not having the overall effect on the election that it would otherwise have."
Asked about the impact of the administration's steel and aluminum tariffs, he replied, "I would say some both ways in some areas. It is not going to be the defining issue in the election."
A Gallup poll for the current month put "Foreign trade/Trade deficit" as the top issue of just 1 percent of voters. The economy overall was the top issue, with just 13 percent.
The USMCA deal is intended to prod manufacturers to locate more production in the U.S. by making outsourcing to Mexico less profitable through raising labor costs and reducing incentives to locate supply chains there. The deal requires that 75 percent of the parts of a car be made in North America for it to be duty-free, up from the 62.5 percent level set by NAFTA. It also requires that at least 40 percent of all auto content be made by workers making at least $16 an hour or its equivalent.
The trade issue does appear to be significant in some races, though the specific impact of Trump's policies is hard to gauge. It has been mentioned in 13,655 TV ad spots related to the Indiana Senate race between Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun since Oct. 8. Both candidates have taken generally anti-trade positions and sought to portray the other as helping foreign companies outsource jobs. Donnelly has criticized the "uncertainty created by the Administration’s current trade policy," while Braun has claimed that Trump's trade dealings have "yielded phenomenal results." RealClearPolitics currently gives Braun a half-point lead in weighted polling average.
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., who is trailing in a bid to maintain her Senate seat against GOP challenger Kevin Cramer, has repeatedly hit Trump on trade issues, tweeting Monday that "the administration's trade war has long-term consequences for American farmers and manufacturers." Heitkamp claimed last week that White House polices were dragging her state's farmers down because the Chinese have targeted soy beans for retaliation.