Independent voters are fleeing the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden, building on the likelihood of a big GOP victory in the House and Senate midterm elections next fall.

Democratic pollster John Zogby said that his new survey showed that independent voters are in charge of the election, and they are trending away from the Democrats.

He said that voters favor Republican control of Congress 46% to 43%, a helpful margin for the GOP that would appear to put continued Democratic control of the House and Senate out of reach.

His data also show independents swinging to Republicans. “While 93% of Democrats favor Democratic control, and 92% of Republicans favor Republican control — independents prefer Republican control of Congress 45% to 27% Democrat, leaving 28% undecided,” said his analysis of the survey of 777 likely voters nationwide, conducted Dec. 17 online. It has an overall margin of sampling error of 3.6 percentage points.

Zogby, who is the Democratic grader on our Secrets Weekly White House Report Card, explained, “In my four decades of polling, Democrats need about a five-percentage point advantage nationwide in congressional preference in order to maintain a majority of Congress. With a three-point Republican lead, and a substantial lead among independents, signs are pointing today to the possibility of a big Republican advantage going into 2022."

His survey also shows a better approval rating for Biden than some others, with 46% approving of Biden to 52% disapproving.