In an earlier post, I looked at how it would be more challenging than assumed to swap out Brett Kavanaugh for another nominee. A new Quinnipiac poll provides us with another piece of the puzzle as to why it would be difficult for Republicans to dump him.

To be sure, the poll isn't great news for Republicans overall. It shows growing opposition to Kavanaugh (women oppose his confirmation by 18 points) and finds that more people find Christine Blasey Ford believable .

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But, whereas just 42 percent of Americans say they want Kavanaugh confirmed compared to 48 who oppose him, an overwhelming 84 percent of Republicans want to see Kavanaugh confirmed.

It isn't very often that you see parties defy the expressed wishes of 84 percent of their party, particularly just weeks before an election in which motivating the base to turn out in states President Trump carried will be key to maintaining control of the U.S. Senate.

Republicans, thus, are in a bind on this. Unless the FBI digs up something that discredits Kavanaugh in the eyes of the base, the GOP Senate will be facing significant pressure to confirm him, even though he's opposed by a plurality of voters overall. And, as previously established, confirming a replacement pick by the end of the year — let alone by Election Day — is far from a lock.

One other interesting finding from the poll — while just 41 percent of those polled say they "most believed Kavanaugh" (as opposed to 48 percent who most believe Ford), 49 percent say Kavanaugh "is the target of a politically motivated smear campaign."

That means that, though small, it suggests there's a subset of the population that doesn't believe Kavanaugh, but still think he's being smeared for political reasons.