Oddmakers are feeling better about Brett Kavanaugh’s chances of becoming the next Supreme Court justice, even with all of the negative press and political attacks he has sustained over multiple unverified and uncorroborated allegations of sexual misconduct.
At around this time last week, the judge’s odds to be confirmed to the Supreme Court were basically a tossup, with oddsmakers giving him a 50/50 chance of making it out of the confirmation process, according to BetDSI, which bills itself as the “the leader in providing safe, legal and secure online wagering.”
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However, even after Kavanaugh and one of his accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee last Thursday, and even with the press printing every salacious anti-Kavanaugh rumor it can find, the judge’s odds of being confirmed have actually improved, according to BetDSI.
The group posed a question this week: "Will the Senate hold a vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh as the next Supreme Court Justice?”
It placed the odds of “Yes” at -450, while the odd of “No” at +300. Interestingly enough, last week, “Yes” was at -230, while “No” was at “+165.”
BetDIS also asked: “Will Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice?”
It puts “Yes” at -190 and “No” at +140. Again, at around this time last week, “Yes” was at -125, while “No” was at -105.
"Now that Kavanaugh cleared the Judiciary Committee, the odds of there being a confirmation vote go up and, because of conditional probability, so does his chance of being confirmed," one BetDSI oddsmaker said. "The FBI investigation is still a source of uncertainty, which is why his odds aren't higher, but it seems to be the only significant hurdle since Flake, Collins, and Murkowski have indicated that their support is conditional on the outcome."
That the judge’s odds have increased even with all the bad press and the White House instructing the FBI to reopen its background investigation is a bit startling. It’s certainly not what I expected.
I mean, I did write last week that Kavanaugh’s chances improved greatly after Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., announced he would vote to confirm the judge. As I noted at the time, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., can’t afford to lose more than one Republican vote to get Kavanaugh over the finish line (this is assuming no Democrats vote “Yea”). Getting Flake on board was a big step in that direction, most especially as it signaled his fellow GOP moderates, Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Susan Collins, R-Maine, would likely follow.
But I didn’t think bookies would also feel so bullishly toward Kavanaugh, especially after Flake made his support for Kavanaugh contingent on delaying the final confirmation vote for up to one week to allow the FBI time to investigate the sexual assault allegations. Didn't see that one coming.