LANCASTER, Pennsylvania — Julie, Anne, and Heather are all Republicans with similar backgrounds. They are all voting in Pennsylvania’s primary Tuesday and are all splitting their vote between three candidates in that race.

Julie is all in for Kathy Barnette, Anne is voting for Dr. Mehmet Oz because of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, and Heather supports Dave McCormick.

Welcome to primary election day in Pennsylvania. Two weeks ago, it would have been fairly easy to predict who would win the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in this state. Today, it is anyone’s guess. The biggest unknown is whether Barnette's surge has fallen off enough for either McCormick or Oz to surpass her.

The one person who could drag her across the finish line is state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who has led in the polls for governor all along. He received Trump's seal of approval with a last-minute endorsement over the weekend.

Polling is all over the place. Several polls show Oz ahead. Some show McCormick ahead, and still others show Barnette ahead. All the polls show a chunk of the electorate still undecided.

Both the Oz campaign and the McCormick campaign have seen voters return to their camps. But again, will it be enough?

G. Terry Madonna, the dean of the political scientists in this state, says that in the 40 years he has been observing and polling in this state for president, Senate, House, and governor, he has never seen anything like this. “There are more than twists and turns in this election. It's hard to see if you are coming or going in watching this race,” said Madonna.

Barnette rose because she had great lines in a debate that came one day before Trump came to western Pennsylvania for his sparsely attended rally — likely because of foul weather. His candidate, Oz, was booed, leading Trump to go scorched earth on McCormick in response.

Barnette rose just in time to face some tough questions on her resume (she struggles to give straight answers about discrepancies), her tweets, and her attendance with the Proud Boys at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Barnette, like Mastriano, refuses to let the press cover her events. None of that has helped — but has it hurt her enough?

Julie says the press and the establishment are just after Barnette because she is an outsider. She is a very real part of the electorate that is so bent on sticking it to the establishment that she doesn't mind if there are a few holes in Barnette’s story.

The counties to watch Tuesday night in the west are Cambria, Blair, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland, Allegheny, Butler, Erie and Beaver. In the east, it will be Luzerne, Lehigh, and the five collar counties surrounding Philadelphia. Early returns out of those counties will likely tell you who will emerge the winner. If Barnette does not win, don’t expect her to concede — she still hasn’t conceded her 20-point congressional loss from 2020.