Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans in the the latest polling for the 2018 midterm elections, which are only a couple of weeks away.
The generic ballot gives Democrats a 50-41 edge over the GOP on the question of who should control Congress, despite rising approval ratings for President Trump and solid marks from voters for the Republicans on the economy. The Democrats' advantage is fueled by solid leads among blacks, Latinos, and college-educated white women.
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The Democrats' overall edge shrinks to just 7 points when only registered voters are considered, according to a NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Much will depend on turnout in the election, with both sides having near-equal levels of enthusiasm. Almost three-fourths of Democrats, 72 percent, say they are highly interested in the election, while 68 percent of Republicans say the same.
"It's the first time ever in our polling that our likely voter model shows a better number for the Democrats than the registered voter number. Normally in midterms, Republicans have the likely voter advantage. What's different this year? It's the heightened and enthusiasm for Democrats among millennials and Latino women," NBC's Chuck Todd said.
The political party in power typically loses seats in off-year elections and Trump has been a galvanizing figure for Democrats.
Polling analyst Nate Silver said on ABC on Sunday that Democrats are "almost in a no-lose situation" in the House. "Democrats might have four or five seats they can lose versus 100 GOP seats in play. Anywhere from a 20-seat gain if Democrats have a disappointing night up to 50, 60 seats if the turnout is high," he said.
Trump's job approval rating is 47 percent, while 49 percent disapprove, Trump's best showing in that poll to date and a three-point swing from last month when it stood at 44 percent to 52 percent. The poll also gave Republicans a 15 point edge on the question of who better to handle the economy.
The live-caller poll was conducted Oct. 14-17 with 900 registered voters. It has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points; among the 645 likely voters, the margin of error was 3.9 percentage points.