A House Republican majority in its death throes was resuscitated early this month as the conservative base rallied around newly-minted Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a leading GOP group claimed Tuesday in a memorandum to campaign donors.
Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, said in the memo that the party’s incumbents in several targeted districts enjoyed their best polling results since the beginning of the summer, as the partisan battle over Kavanaugh’s confirmation reached its apex during the first week of October.
“The enthusiasm gap closed across the country, Republicans improved their standing with independent voters, and President Trump’s job approval rating improved across the board. In 20 districts CLF polled last week, the president’s numbers were up 5 points on average,” CLF executive director Corry Bliss said in the memo, although he cautioned:
“There are 20 races within four points that will determine the House majority, and CLF will keep working to win them. While the environment has improved, Republican candidates face historic spending and usual midterm challenges.”
Fresh polling in key Senate races shows a clear uptick in support for Republicans. These contests, playing out in red states inclined to support Trump, appeared to have galvanized the conservative base motivated GOP votes that might have been flirting with Democratic candidates to return to their partisan roots. Bliss claims that Republican candidates in battleground House districts received a similar boost, emerging from the Kavanaugh fight with an improved position on the midterm election ballot, in surveys produced in the past few days.
Here are those highlighted in the CLF memo:
- Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., led 51 percent – 44 percent
- Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., led 46 percent – 36 percent
- Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., led 50 percent – 37 percent
- Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, led 55 percent – 30 percent
- Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., led 48 percent – 37 percent
- Rep. John Katko, R-N.Y., led 47 percent – 32 percent
More than a potential blue wave, Bliss said that the primary challenge before House Republicans is a “green wave” of Democratic money. House Democrats and their allies are outspending the Republicans and aligned groups by a whopping $50 million. And in the 31 contests rated a “tossup” by the nonpartisan Cook Report, CLF is engaged in 27 — and is the sole Republican group engaged in 14 of them. In other words, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm, is not spending 14 of the races rated most competitive.
[Also read: How Kavanaugh has shaken the midterm elections kaleidoscope]
Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee disputed CLF’s internal surveys, pointing to conflicting data that showed much better conditions for Democratic challengers. Democrats must flip 23 seats to win the House majority on Nov. 6.
In recent DCCC polling, Bost led Democrat Brendan Kelly by a mere 42 percent to 41 percent and Davis led Democrat Betsy Londrigan 49 percent to 48 percent. The DCCC also took issue with CLF’s numbers in the Barr race, citing an internal Democratic poll conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 2. In that survey, Democrat Amy McGrath led Barr 51 percent – 44 percent.
"With no coherent message to run on and a growing chorus of criticism over their backfiring attack ads, CLF is desperate to change the conversation away from their failures," said DCCC spokesman Tyler Law. "Democrats have entered the fourth quarter with all the momentum, growing leads in district level polls, and an expanded battlefield that has thrown Republicans on defense deep into the map. CLF never seemed to get that memos don’t win elections, campaigns do."
Correction: The Congressional Leadership Fund is engaged in 27 of the 31 House races rated a "tossup" by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report; and the group is the sole GOP group spending in 14 of those 31 races. The original version of this story misstated those numbers.