OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results of the July survey in the Mid-America region:

Arkansas: The state's overall index dropped to 52.4 in July from 59.7 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 30.6, production or sales at 61.8, delivery lead time at 47.0, inventories at 52.0 and employment at 66.0. "The drought will push growth in the state lower in the months ahead, especially for firms with close ties to the state's large poultry industry," Goss said. "Except for Nebraska, no other state in the region depends more heavily on food processing to support growth than Arkansas. As a result, higher farm commodity prices in the months ahead will be a significant economic headwind for the state economy, but growth should remain positive though weaker," he said.

Iowa: Iowa's overall index fell to 62.1 from June's 68.0, remaining above growth neutral for the 31st month in a row. Components of the index for July were new orders at 65.0, production or sales at 62.4, delivery lead time at 50.4, employment at 72.8 and inventories at 60.1. "I was very surprised to see the positive July readings for the state," Goss said. "I expect them to weaken significantly in the months ahead as the negative impacts from the drought winds through the economy. Food processing represents approximately one-fourth of Iowa's manufacturing sector, and that will suffer from the higher farm commodity prices," he said.

Kansas: The state's overall index slipped to 47.8 in July from 51.7 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 51.8, production or sales at 43.5, delivery lead time at 47.0, employment at 42.9 and inventories at 54.0. The USDA has declared almost 80 percent of the counties in Kansas as federal disaster areas as a result of the drought, Goss said. "I expect overall state growth to be flat to negative in the next three to six months," he said.

Minnesota: Minnesota's overall index dropped below growth neutral for the first time in almost three years, plummeting to 45.6 from 58.6 in June. Components of the July index were new orders at 34.7, production or sales at 42.3, delivery lead time at 65.4, inventories at 35.7 and employment at 50.1. "The downturn in export orders weighed more heavily on the Minnesota economy for July than the drought. The global economic slowdown combined with the rising value of the dollar pulled the overall index below growth neutral for the month," Goss said. "I expect state growth to be flat to slightly negative in the next three to six months," he said.

Missouri: The state's overall index plunged to 50.2 in July from 59.1 in June. Components of index were new orders at 45.4, production or sales at 47.0, delivery lead time at 60.6, inventories at 45.4 and employment at 52.9. "One supply manager reported the shutdown of auto plants for July vacations pushed growth lower," Goss said.

Nebraska: For the first time since October 2010, Nebraska's overall index dropped below growth neutral. The index hit 48.3 in July, compared with 54.5 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 46.0, production or sales at 47.9, delivery lead time at 51.9, inventories at 48.0 and employment at 47.9. Goss said no state in the region depends more heavily on livestock production and food processing than Nebraska. "We are already detecting significant and negative impacts in our monthly surveys from the drought. I expect those negative impacts to grow in the months ahead, with consequent pullbacks in the Nebraska economy, at least in the short run," he said.

North Dakota: North Dakota's overall index dropped to a still healthy 56.5 in July, compared with 63.0 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 58.7, production or sales at 57.3, delivery lead time at 56.8, employment at 59.3 and inventories at 50.3. "While the impacts from the drought are not as severe in North Dakota, they are nonetheless affecting the state economy," Goss said. "While I do expect positive growth for the state in the months ahead, it will clearly be slower," he said.

Oklahoma: The state's overall index slumped to 52.7 in July from 56.8 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 56.6, production or sales at 51.5, delivery lead time at 53.2, inventories at 50.1 and employment at 52.3. "With drought conditions in all of the state's 77 counties, it was not surprising to measure a decline in Oklahoma's leading economic indicator," Goss said. "With feed costs rising, livestock producers in the state are selling off their herds. Thus, businesses linked to agriculture, especially livestock where there is not crop insurance, will experience slower to no growth in the months ahead. I do expect Oklahoma's growth to remain positive but much slower," he said.

South Dakota: South Dakota's overall index plummeted below growth neutral in July, hitting 46.0, compared with 52.1 in June and 62.4 in May. Components of the index were new orders at 41.6, production or sales at 44.4, delivery lead time at 49.7, inventories at 48.1 and employment at 46.3."While crop insurance will soften the drought's impact on crop farming," Goss said, "livestock producers and businesses tied to this important state sector will suffer in the months ahead."



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