Jennifer Duffy at the Cook Political Report knows statewide races far better than I do, I am sure, but her recent call on Texas Senate seems pretty wrong to me. Speaking of the open-seat Senate race in Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring), MSNBC reports:

While many Republicans want her seat, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is the 800-pound gorilla. "If Dewhurst gets in, I think he clears the field," the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy tells First Read.

I think "clearing the field" isn't as easy as it used to be. Just ask Trey Grayson, Charlie Crist, Republican Arlen Specter, Democrat Arlen Specter, Bob Bennett, or Jane Norton -- or even Dan Coats or Kelly Ayotte who had to scrap to hang on. Dewhurst is, by Texas standards, at least, a moderate. Worse, he is firmly of the establishment.

Check what Jim DeMint or RedState are saying about this race. There's lots of energy behind conservatives Ted Cruz and Michael Williams, and Texas Republican voters seem unlikely to take marching orders from the RNC or Rick Perry.

[Hat tip to Matt Mackowiak on Twitter.]