Normally accurate presidential election modeling based on the economy strongly suggests that President Obama is in deep trouble this year.
James Campbell, an expert election forecaster at the University at Buffalo, SUNY, finds that Obama's economy is on par with those that killed the reelection chances of former Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford. Under Obama, overall growth has been an average of 2.1 percent and it was just 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year.
"Each president who presided over an economy with an average growth rate greater than 2.7% has gone on to win his election. To date, each president with an economy growing at a slower rate has lost," Campbell said via Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.