The three major U.S. stock indexes tumbled for a third straight day, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 608 points to wipe out all of this year's growth, as corporate America predicted rising costs from President Trump's trade war and growth slowed in home sales.
The Dow fell 2.4 percent at the close of New York trading and is now down 0.5 percent this year, while the broader S&P 500 dropped 3.1 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 4.4 percent. Although many businesses have raised prices to cover the impact of White House duties on steel, aluminum, and $250 billion of Chinese imports, which Trump says are necessary to buoy American manufacturing and curb trade imbalances, executives have also detailed millions of dollars in higher costs.
At Illinois Tool Works, which builds products from car parts to food equipment, the tariffs will drive expenses up $30 million this year and as much as $60 million next year, Chief Financial Officer Michael Larsen told investors on an earnings call Wednesday. The company has raised prices to compensate, he added, and has benefited from its practice of manufacturing goods as close as possible to the the regions where they're sold.
"We're in a pretty dynamic environment here in terms of raw material costs and tariffs," he said. "I just want to be a little bit cautious in terms of saying that all this is all behind us. We're going have to continue to work really hard."
The comments echoed assessments a day earlier from executives at Caterpillar and 3M, two of the largest American manufacturers. Caterpillar, which makes heavy equipment used in farming and roadwork, said tariffs on steel, aluminum, and $250 billion of Chinese imports may reduce profit by $100 million or more for all of 2018, while 3M described a $100 million "headwind."
Boeing, one of the world's two largest planemakers, said Wednesday the duties shouldn't interfere with plans to boost production of its workhorse 737 jetliners nearly 10 percent to 57 a month, but CEO Dennis Muilenburg is following talks closely.
"We're very engaged with our Chinese airline customers and leadership in China, along with the U.S. government," Muilenburg told investors, "and both countries are interested in a healthy aerospace industry."
While the tariffs aren't likely to have hurt corporate earnings much in the three months through September because of their timing, the effects that some companies are predicting is prompting markets to price in more of the risks, Jason Draho, head of Americas asset allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment office, told the Washington Examiner.
Still, "the markets have sold off a lot more than the fundamentals would suggest," Draho added. "We would see this more as a kind of correction in the bull market. There's very little risk of recession in the next 12 months."
Separately, the U.S. economy — largely a strength for Trump and congressional Republicans as midterm elections draw nearer — struck a sour note Wednesday. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales dropped 5.5 percent in September from the month before, touching 553,000 -- a number far less than the 625,000 that economists had projected.
Downward revisions to previous months indicated sales "have fallen off noticeably from last year’s expansionary highs," said Jonathan Millar of British lender Barclays. Sales dropped in every region except the Midwest, and the pattern of declines suggested "that hurricane-related disruptions played little or no role," he said.
Overall, the American economy remains healthy, with the lowest unemployment in almost 50 years and limited inflation, David Page, a London-based economist with AXA Investment Managers, told the Examiner.
Despite pressure from global challenges including Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the chance of moderately slower growth in the U.S. next year, the economic environment isn't one "against which stocks are likely to undertake a marked and persistent slowdown," he said. "What we expect is a correction, and that in itself can be painful enough, but a correction that's likely to find a bottom."