A surge of interest in a potential Democratic presidential run by Vice President Joe Biden has been matched by a burst in bets for him on the relatively new site PredictIt which also shows that Sen. Bernie Sanders is a hot commodity in the political stock market.
With a new Washington Examiner report that Biden's allies believe he's planning to run, traders on PredictIt have boosted odds he gets in to 52-48, up four percent.
Sanders, meanwhile, was the top traded topic on the website Thursday.
However, most still see Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination.
Interest grows in a presidential fight between Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden. AP Photo
Started after the prediction site Intrade died two years ago, PredictIt has been accurately choosing winners, the latest being Greece's vote against tough European Union fiscal demands. While many pollsters said the vote would be close, PredictIt "traders" chose "no" overwhelmingly.
The site is run out of the University of Victoria, in New Zealand, with the help of Washington-based analytics firm company Aristotle International. Unlike Intrade, it's all legal, very user friendly, and trades are limited to anything up to $850.
Brandi Travis, Aristotle's chief marketing officer, said traders have a better record than polls for a simple reason: "They've got skin in the game."
What's more, PredictIt already has 22,000 traders.
And many of those are already predicting 2016. Today's results: Jeb Bush beats Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker for the GOP nomination, but eventually loses to Clinton.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.