Eight American and three British combat deaths in Afghanistan in 24 hours served as a grim forecast for a "violent summer" as NATO troops ratchet up pressure on the Taliban, officials and experts said.
"You are seeing this increase in casualties because [coalition] forces are pushing into areas that have been historic safe havens for insurgent fighters," coalition spokesman Lt. Col. John L. Dorrian told The Washington Examiner. "As we reduce their freedom of movement and action, they're fighting back as we knew they would. We expect a violent summer as we continue to build up forces in the southern part of Afghanistan."
The eight American and three British soldiers who died between late Tuesday and Wednesday night were killed in several different attacks. Three U.S. troops were among those who died when an Afghan suicide bomber struck a police compound in Kabul. Four more American soldiers were killed in southern Afghanistan by a roadside bomb, while one more U.S. service member died of wounds from a gun battle, also in the south.
The three British soldiers were killed by a rogue Afghanistan army volunteer who is suspected to have been a Taliban plant.
At least 33 American troops have been killed in Afghanistan so far in July, along with about a dozen soldiers from other coalition nations. The coalition death toll for June reached 102, including 60 Americans.
James Carafano, director of the Heritage Foundation's Foreign Policy Center, a conservative think tank in Washington, said that casualty numbers alone "without context" are not enough to determine what is happening on the ground.
"We of course anticipated casualties would go up as the NATO troops took the battle to the Taliban," Carafano said. "You also have to remember that the [Taliban's] goal is to drive up casualties to make the war look like it can't be won. You have to look at the nature of the casualties. If the U.S. troops were sitting back in their bunkers and taking losses that would be one thing, if it is because we are taking space away from the Taliban that is something else."
Retired Army Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, however, said the increased death toll is a consequence of failed policies.
"We have the wrong strategy; counterinsurgency is flawed," Vallely said. "Working from large bases and trying to fight an unconventional war against jihadis and their proxies under restrictive rules of engagement won't work."
Dorrian said that despite the tragic loss of troops there are many indicators that the strategy is working.
"Special operations forces have captured or killed more than 140 insurgent commanders and leadership figures in the past four months," he said. "The insurgency is showing signs of disruption, such as difficulty replacing commanders once we remove them from the battlefield."
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